Oskarlina, Nia (2025) Analisis Struktur Pasar dan Daya Saing Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia Di Pasar Dunia. Masters thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

Crude palm oil (CPO) is a strategic commodity or product that has an important role in the Indonesian economy and has great potential in international trade. This research aims to find out and analyze: (1) Market structure of the Indonesian CPO in the global market, (2) The comparative advantages of Indonesian CPO over its competitors in export destination countries, (3) The competitive advantages of Indonesian CPO over its competitors in export destination countries, and (4) Factors affecting Indonesian CPO exports compared to its competitors. The research used a library research method covering two major exporting countries, namely Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as five export destination countries: India, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and China. The research was conducted over six months, from January to June 2025. The type of data used is secondary data in the form of panel data for the period 2014–2023. The analysis used includes market share and concentration ratio (CR/HHI) to measure market structure; RCA, RSCA, and TSI for comparative advantage; ECI, CMSA, and EPD for competitive advantage; and gravity model with PPML estimation to analyze export determinants. The results showed: (1) Market structure analysis shows that Indonesian and Malaysian CPO exports are highly concentrated, reflected by CR5 > 80% and HHI > 2,500, indicating an oligopoly market structure. The dominance of concentration leads to the Indian market which absorbs more than 40% of total exports. (2) Comparative advantage analysis shows that Indonesia and Malaysia have strong competitiveness in CPO exports with RCA comparison in India were (15.34 vs 15.35), the Netherlands (33.50 vs 35.70), Italy (107.92 vs 118.37), Spain (78.49 vs 91.01), and China (25.51 vs 15.78). A positive RSCA value indicates that the comparative advantage is maintained despite the downward trend. The TSI indicator shows Indonesia as the dominant net exporter (0.9996), higher than Malaysia (0.8254). (3) Competitive advantage analysis shows that Indonesia's export growth exceeds global exports with ECI value were in India market (1,05), Spanyol (1,10), dan China (12,33), Meanwhile Malaysia was competitive in India were (1,06) and China (7,90). The CMSA indicates that export performance was not driven by commodity composition effects (Indonesia's value was negative at -0.0003065; Malaysia's is -0.0002594). The market distribution effect shows that Indonesia's export orientation was only directed to the growth market (India), while Malaysia's to India, Spain, and China. Indonesia's competitiveness effect was only positive in China (0.0000026), while Malaysia's was negative in all markets. Market position based on EPD places Indonesian exports in the lost opportunity (India, China) and retreat (Netherlands, Italy, Spain) categories. Malaysia was also dominated by retreat (India, Netherlands, China) and lost opportunity (Italy, Spain). (4) PPML estimation results show a very good model (Pseudo R² Indonesia = 0.9797; Malaysia = 0.9597). The variables of real GDP per capita (lnGDPpc) and economic distance (lnDISTeco) have a significant negative effect, while population (lnPOP), CPO consumption (lnCONS), real exchange rate (lnRER), and import tariff (lnTAR) have a significant positive effect on Indonesian exports. Export price (lnPx) was not significant, and DFTA only has a positive but insignificant impact. Furthermore in Malaysia, DFTA has a significant positive effect, while export prices (lnPx) and import tariffs (lnTAR) were not significant.

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