Pandurisi, Mahardika (2026) Evaluasi Keekonomian Pengembangan Sumur Horizontal Dengan Simulasi Risiko Investasi Cryptocurrency Menggunakan Var Historical Simulation Di Lapangan X. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

The decline in production from mature oil fields necessitates the implementation of development strategies capable of enhancing hydrocarbon recovery in an economically efficient manner, one of which is horizontal well drilling. At the same time, increasing volatility in financial markets has encouraged the use of alternative investment instruments such as cryptocurrencies, despite their high risk characteristics. This study aims to evaluate the economic feasibility of horizontal well development in Field X under the PSC Gross Split scheme and to assess cryptocurrency investment risk using the Value at Risk (VaR) method with a Historical Simulation approach. The research adopts a quantitative methodology utilizing secondary data, including oil production profiles, development costs, and historical price data of Bitcoin and Ethereum for the 2024–2025 period. Economic evaluation is conducted through Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Pay Out Time (POT) analyses across four development scenarios. The results indicate that the first and third scenarios are economically unfeasible, yielding negative NPVs of −US$ 756,122.56 and −US$ 184,750.05, respectively, with IRR values below the Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return (MARR) of 15%. The second scenario is marginally feasible, generating an NPV of US$ 23,381.06, an IRR of 15.42%, and a POT of 3.58 years. The fourth scenario delivers the most favorable performance, with an NPV of US$ 710,834.16, an IRR of 37.21%, and a POT of 1.95 years, thereby outperforming the other scenarios. Risk analysis using the Historical Simulation VaR method at a 95% confidence level and an initial investment of US$ 6.174.617,86 shows that Bitcoin has a VaR of 3.41% (US$ -210.783,82), while Ethereum exhibits a higher VaR of 5.51% (US$ 340.362,59), indicating greater downside risk for Ethereum. This study concludes that single horizontal well development in Field X represents the most economically viable option, while Bitcoin demonstrates relatively lower risk compared to Ethereum as a supporting investment instrument. Future research is recommended to incorporate longer data periods and alternative risk modeling techniques to enhance analytical robustness. .

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