Rahayu, Ainul Mastika (2025) Perbandingan Metode J.J Arps Dengan Metode Probabilistik Menggunakan Simulator Komersil Untuk Menentukan Cadangan Minyak Di Lapangan “Al”. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

Accurate reserve estimates are necessary for resource management and field development decision-making. In addition, the oil sector is a major contributor to foreign exchange earnings, so optimizing production and developing new areas is essential. The decline curve analysis (DCA) method or J.J. Arps method and probabilistic approaches are important for estimating reserves with a certain level of confidence, thereby supporting successful field development and effective oil field management. The main objective of this study is to analyze the comparison of results between the JJ Arps method and the Probabilistic Reserve, namely P1, P2, and P3 from a commercial simulator in calculating reserves and determining Remaining Reserve (RR), Estimate Ultimate Recovery (EUR), and Recovery Factor (RF) calculations. Reserve calculations were performed using the JJ Arps method and a probabilistic approach with a reserve certainty level using the OFM simulator. The application of the JJ Arps User Define method provided the closest estimation results to company data, with the smallest difference of 0.36%. The Harmonic curve type produced an EUR of 86,108 MSTB, an RR of 15,602 MSTB, and an RF of 42.57%. followed by hyperbolic, which produced an EUR value of 82,148 MSTB, an RR of 12,025 MSTB, and an RF of 40.57%, and exponential, which produced the most conservative EUR value of 76,210 MSTB, an RR of 5,705 MSTB, and an RF of 37.55%.

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