Ichsan, Hacthanul (2025) Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Di Provinsi Riau menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

This study is titled "Prediction of the Number of Poor Population in Riau Province Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Method". The purpose of this research is to develop an information system for predicting the number of poor people, which can serve as a decision-making tool for stakeholders and be accessible to the general public. The data used in this study consists of the number of poor people in Riau Province from 2002 to 2024. The system was developed using the Waterfall method, while the forecasting technique employed is the Double Exponential Smoothing method. The results show that the best MAPE value of 4.91% was achieved with an alpha parameter (α) of 0.36, resulting in a prediction accuracy of approximately 95.08%. The system also features parameter configuration, data management, and interactive charts for trend analysis. With its relatively high accuracy, this system is expected to serve as a useful information tool in supporting poverty reduction efforts in Riau Province.

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