Karlina, Yupi (2023) Peramalan Produksi Crude Palm Oil (cpo) Di Provinsi Riau Dengan Pendekatan Model Arima (autoregresif Integrated Moving Average). Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

Forecasting Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Production in Riau Province with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Method Approach. Supervisor by Dr. Azharuddin M. Amin, M.Sc. The increase in palm oil (CPO) production needs to be observed every year and conducting of production forecasting for the following year. Production forecasting is used to determine the potential of CPO production in the future. This study aims to (1) Analyze the pattern of CPO production data in Riau province. (2) Establish a tentative forecasting model for CPO production forecasting in Riau Province. (3) Forecast the next fifteen years of CPO production in Riau Province. The the literature study was method. The research was conducted for 6 months from July to December 2022. CPO production data was used from 1992-2021. The type of data used was secondary which was sourced from Riau province Palm Oil Plantation Statistics Data. The data was analyzed by using the ARIMA time series method with Minitab version 21 software: The results showed that: In the original data pattern of Riau Province CPO production for the last 30 years starting from 1992-2021 shows fluctuatif movements, but tends to increase from year to year; The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method processed using eviews minitab software version 21 can identify three ARIMA models that can be used in forecasting the amount of crude palm oil production, namely ARIMA (0,1,1), (1,0,1), and (1,1,1). The three models were tested again with residual diagnosis, the results of residual diagnosis obtained the best ARIMA model, namely the ARIMA (1,1,1) model; and the results of CPO forecasting in Riau Province are known that the estimated value of forecasting for the next fifteen years has increased from 2022 to 2036. In 2022 there were 10,118,645 tons and in 2036 there were 14,867,896 tons.

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