Peramalan Produksi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Di Provinsi Riau Dengan Pendekatan Model Arima (Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average)

Laia, Kalvianus (2019) Peramalan Produksi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Di Provinsi Riau Dengan Pendekatan Model Arima (Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average). Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

Forecasting Production of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in Riau Province With the ARIMA Method Approach (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Under the guidance of Dr. Ir. Saipul Bahri, M.Ec (I) and Mr. Dr. Azharuddin M. Amin, M.Sc (II). `Predicting production that is too large and less accurate can result in increased production costs so that all invested investment becomes less efficient, therefore we need a science and activities that are able to predict future production in Riau Province by looking at data in the past. Forecasting is an important tool in effective and efficient planning. This study aims to (1) Analyze the Pattern of CPO Production Data in Riau Province. (2) Forecasting CPO Production in the next 15 years using the ARIMA method in Riau Province. The method used in this study is the literature study method while the data analysis uses the ARIMA time series method with the help of the Minitab 18 application. The results show (1) The pattern of CPO production data in the last 30 years has increased. (2) The tentative ARIMA 0,1,1 model shows the results of the next 15 years forecasting (2019-2033) with results of 8,008,760.73 tons for the first period and 15,363,305.79 for the last period of forecasting Riau Province CPO production.

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