Ghifari, Ahmad Muzaki (2025) Studi Pengaruh Parameter Water Breaktrough Time dalam Mengantisipasi Terjadinya Water Coning dengan Menggunakan Simulator CMG-2018. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

Water coning is one of the main challenges in oil production from underwater reservoirs, where water from the aquifer zone rises toward the wellbore due to the pressure drawdown caused by oil production. This phenomenon can lead to early water breakthrough (WBT), thereby reducing production efficiency and increasing operational costs.This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of various reservoir and well parameters to the timing of water breakthrough in a simple reservoir system without injection schemes, as a preliminary approach to understanding coning tendencies. The method used is sensitivity analysis based on numerical simulation using the CMG-IMEX and CMOST simulators. The model results show very high predictive performance, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.988 for training data and 0.999 for verification data.Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most dominant parameter influencing WBT is the anisotropy ratio (89.7%), followed by fluid density difference (9.9%), perforation ratio (2.2%), effective radius ratio (1%), and viscosity ratio (0.05%).The main findings suggest that the anisotropy ratio and the density difference between oil and water play a significant role in delaying water migration to the well, while perforation design and well geometry have secondary effects. Therefore, formation anisotropy characterization and well design configuration are key aspects in mitigating early water breakthrough caused by water coning.

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