Agiparlia, Zaky (2023) Penentuan Cadangan Minyak Sisa pada Lapangan Z dengan Metode DCA Jj-arps dan Software Ofm Serta Metode Arima. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

One of the tasks that must be carried out by a petroleum technician is forecasting oil production in the future. One of the methods used to determine oil and gas reserves is the decline curve analysis. Sewerage curve analysis is a method to determine the potential of carbon contained in a reservoir based on production data rates, cumulative production, and production time. Field Z has been producing from 1988 to 2022, so this field has experienced a decline in production and meets the requirements for reserve forecasting using decline curve analysis. In addition to the DCA method, it is necessary to develop in determining future production levels. The purpose of this research is to develop EUR (Estimation of Ultimate Recovery), production life, remaining oil reserves, and recovery factors to economic limits and provide alternative methods for determining future production levels. JJ Arps DCA calculations were performed using MS. Excel and by using OFM software and the ARIMA method using EVIEWS software. The type of decline used is exponential. From calculations using the JJ Arps DCA method, the EUR value is 1881525 STB, the ERR is 582185 STB, the RF is 26%, and the production time is 156 months. From calculations using OFM software, the EUR value is 1996540 STB, the ERR is 712580 STB, the RF is 27%, and the production time is 154 months. From calculations using the ARIMA method, the EUR value is 1903792 STB, the ERR is 604451.5 STB, the RF is 26%, and the production time is 176 months. Based on the EUR, ERR and RF values obtained by the ARIMA method, the results are better and closer to the JJ Arps DCA method.

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