Firman, M.ihqal Zulaidi (2025) Aplikasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Untuk Memperkirakan Cadangan Minyak Sisa Di Lapangan M. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

This study focuses on forecasting oil production using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method and the Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) method, with the objective of estimating the Remaining Reserves (RR) and the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) of the "Z" field. The comparison between DES and DCA methods highlights significant differences, with DES being more responsive to short-term trends and DCA providing stable projections for long-term production. Results showed that DES predicted EUR of 66,703.05 MSTB and RR of 26,444.25 MSTB by October 2026, while DCA estimated EUR of 101.734024 MSTB and RR of 100.75527 MSTB until January 2043. The OFM method, which was also used for analysis, yielded EUR of 101.56 MSTB and RR of 101.53 MSTB until December 2042. This comparison indicates the suitability of each method depending on the analysis period and data trends. Future research should explore combining both methods for more accurate projections and consider implementing optimization techniques for better resource management in oil fields.

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