INDONESIAN NATURAL RUBBER EXPORTS (TSNR 20) TO THE AMERICAN MARKET BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Heriyanto, Heriyanto and Asrol, Asrol and Elinur, Elinur and Sisca, Vaulina and Indria, Ukrita and John, Nefri and Sispa, Pebrian (2022) INDONESIAN NATURAL RUBBER EXPORTS (TSNR 20) TO THE AMERICAN MARKET BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. In: Seminar Nasional Pembangunan Pertanian "Membangun Ekosistem dan Inovasi Untuk Mewujudkan Kesejahteraan Petani dan Kemandirian Pangan Nasional Berkelanjutan, @7 September 2022, Payakumbuh Sumatera Barat.

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Abstract

Natural rubber is a very important and strategic commodity for Indonesia. The second largest agricultural export commodity after palm oil, rubber is the source of livelihood for more than 2.58 million smallholder farming families. Natural rubber is experiencing the most severe economic pressures in Indonesia's modern rubber history. The welfare of natural rubber farmers is increasingly under pressure due to the Covid-19 pandemic which has made natural rubber prices unstable in the global market. Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the United States are one of the largest exports of Indonesian natural rubber derivatives. The purpose of this study is to analyze Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the American market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The method used in this research is literature study. The data used in this study is Time Series data from January 2015 to December 2021. To answer the purpose of this study, it was analyzed using multiple linear regression models and estimated using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results showed: the development of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar, the price of natural rubber both domestically, internationally and in the United States, natural rubber production, natural rubber stocks, and car sales in the United States experienced an average trend of increasing and the volume of natural rubber exports tends to decrease. The dominant factors affecting Indonesian natural rubber exports to the United States market are the Exchange Rate, Prices in the United States, Rubber Stock and the Covid-19 Dummy. The policy implication that the Indonesian government needs to do is to keep natural rubber exports stable in the global market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, increasing consumption to absorb significant domestic natural rubber so that the reduction in exports due to the COVID-19 pandemic can be replaced by the use of domestic rubber.

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