Penawaran Dan Permintaan Kopi Indonesia Di Pasar Internasional: Model Persamaan Simultan

Wati, Ela (2020) Penawaran Dan Permintaan Kopi Indonesia Di Pasar Internasional: Model Persamaan Simultan. Other thesis, Universitas Islam Riau.

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Abstract

In general, the agricultural sector in developing countries really helps the trend of globalization and liberalization and one of the agricultural commodities that is highly recommended by the global market is coffee. This study aims to analyze: (1) the development of supply and demand for Indonesian coffee in the international market; (2) factors that influence supply and demand and the response of major factors to the supply and demand for Indonesian coffee in the international market. The research method used is the library method. The type of time series data is data used from 1980 to 2019. The data analysis used is descriptive statistical analysis and simultaneous analysis of equations. The Simultaneous Model is processed using the Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) method and elasticity. The results of this research show: (1) Indonesian coffee production and Indonesian coffee prices fluctuate and tend to increase every year, while the development of World coffee prices is unstable and tends to decline, demand for Indonesian coffee is fluctuating but has increased and Indonesian coffee exports fluctuate but tend to decline. (2) The supply of Indonesian coffee is significantly emboldened by Indonesia's coffee acreage. Significant demand for Indonesian coffee was obtained by the demand for coffee the previous year. Significant Indonesian coffee prices are obtained by Indonesian coffee production, Indonesian chocolate prices and the CEPT-AFTA dummy. Indonesian Coffee exports are significant by the real Indonesian coffee price and the real Indonesian sugar price. The response of Indonesian coffee production is not responsive to large coffee areas in the short and long term. The demand for Indonesian coffee was not responsive to the previous year's demand. Indonesian coffee prices are very responsive to Indonesian coffee production in the short and long term; not responsive to Indonesian chocolate prices in the short term, but responsive in the long term; and not responsive to the CEPT AFTA cooperation scheme both in the short and long term. Meanwhile, Indonesian coffee exports are not responsive to Indonesian coffee prices and real Indonesian sugar prices in the short and long term.

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